Johor masih kubu kuat PH-BN, sukar digugat PN – penganalisis politik

KUALA LUMPUR: Johor is still considered a stronghold of Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH), whose position is difficult to challenge, although Malaysian support is seen by many as supporters of Beriktan Nasional (BN), especially in Movement Towards UMNO. .

Political analysts say the political situation in Johor is slightly different from that in the north and east of the peninsula, where the PAS, the main CBN party, has political influence.

Therefore, Dr. Mazlan Ali, a political analyst at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), said that winning the two seats in the Pulai (PRK) and Simbang parliamentary by-elections was very important for the unity government. Jerome’s state. Legislative Assembly (DUN) next month.

As for the Pilay Assembly, he said it would be difficult for the PN to break the dominance of PH and BN because the seat has a large percentage of Chinese voters, more than 40 percent, but the Sampang Jerum state assembly. , the odds are in favor of PN Malay. However, trying to minimize its effects is difficult.

“So I see that in these two places, Parliament Palai is a relatively safe place for PH because in the 15th General Election (GE) the National Trust (AMANAH) won by more than 30,000 votes and they are the main contenders at that time. Now they are together.

“However, Sampang Jerum is an open possibility in the state assembly. One reason is that it is close to the parliament of Mur and Bago, where (Tan Sri) Mukaidin (Yasin) did well in GE15. In the state assembly How many ( votes) “The constituency of Sampang Jerum, where the influence of BN is very strong. So I expect a 50-50 chance,” he said.

The influence of the PAS in DUN is based on the party’s previous record of winning the area formerly known as Sungai Abang Dun.

The deciding factor is the ‘swing’ vote of UMNO supporters

Mazlan further commented that the size of the “undecided” vote comprising UMNO supporters and voters in these two by-elections, particularly in Johor, determines the actual scale and strength. The party remains strong in Syria.

“If UMNO can mobilize the support of their supporters for PH, it will be an easy way for PH to win. However, if UMNO supporters switch in large numbers to support the PN, as happened in Selangor, where 40 percent percent of voters support the PN This is not good for UMNO.

He said that if PN Pillai actually wins parliament, it will be a sign that Malaysia’s political demographics have changed, and if PN Pillai wins, it will be a big surprise because Chinese voters hold 40 percent of the seats.

Although UMNO and BN won 40 out of 56 state assembly constituencies in the March 2022 Johor State Election (PRN), the GE15 results showed the opposite dominance and the party’s performance declined sharply in most constituencies. state assembly elections.

This is based on a replication of the GE15 results, in which UMNO and BN managed to win just 18 state assembly seats against the existing 40 state assembly seats. But on the other hand, PH showed a better record and performance in GE15 when it controlled 27 seats in the state assembly, that is, 12 seats compared to DAP, AMANA (10) and five seats controlled by PKR.

The PCN obtained a total of 11 seats in the provincial assembly, of which 6 were won by Barsad and the rest by passes. In the last Johor RPN, the NP won only three seats, namely Tun Maharani, Bukit Kepong and Andau, each represented by PAS and Persat candidates.

According to the GE15 results, Aman Sampong Jeram took over the state assembly while PKR and DAP dominated the two state assemblies in the Palaya, Parling and Kampus Assembly thus confirming the supremacy of PH. Let’s hope there are not many changes at the parliamentary level.

Political Analyst, Associate Professor, University of Malaya (UM). Awang Azman Awang Pawi, who predicted that a coalition of PH and BN would win both by-elections, expected the PN’s vote share to increase relative to that of UMNO supporters. The move was expected. This is not as bad as seen during the previous six-state PRN.

The NRP’s earlier results for Selangor and Negeri Sembilan were essentially treated like the other two by-elections.

“In essence, it is considered a solid foundation based on the performance of both coalitions in the last 15th GE. Apart from this reason, the death of the current president, the late Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub, has tried to generate sympathy. The Dr. coalition may vote for

“BN-PH can still hold its ground by winning these two seats because the politics in Johor is not like Terengganu, Kelantan or Kedah,” he said.

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